← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
CSG Rated Race
Mr Fox’s call
Manton Bay
SPECULATIVE Advised 15/8 SP 13/8F Est. 35%
Mr Fox says
Manton Bay leads the field on SR (98) and carries 9-13 — level with Kirkland Sioux but with a far cleaner recent form line (1-3282 vs Kirkland Sioux's MarkMv:+11 penalty). Crucially, DistFit:+ and GoingFit:+ confirm proven ability at today's mile trip on good ground, and the market has shortened 5% since opening rather than drifting, suggesting stable confidence. David Marnane's yard runs at 8% but Luke McAteer (7% overall) is the booked jockey; the real endorsement is the market move in — small but meaningful in a field where every other major runner has drifted. Iamimmaculate (SR 97) is the sole credible rival on ability, but the DistFit:? flag means unproven at the trip, and its market support (in 7%) is partially offset by Gerard O'Leary's modest 7% stable strike rate versus Marnane's competitive yard. Each-way alternative: Iamimmaculate. Main danger: Iamimmaculate — Iamimmaculate matches Manton Bay almost identically on SR (97 vs 98), carries 4lb less at 9-9, and has shortened 7% in the market — Shane Foley's experience (11%, 891 runners) could exploit that weight advantage if the mile trip suits on the day.
Full result
Winner: Manton Bay (IRE) at SP 13/8F. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Manton Bay Fox #1 15/8
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2
Totally Puzzled 15/2
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3
Elmakaya 8/1
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4
Mayflower 10/1
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5
Kirkland Sioux Fox #3 6/1
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6
Iamimmaculate Fox #2 3/1
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7
Do For Love 33/1
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8
Oscar Nominee 10/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
Manton Bay 15/8 SP 13/8F 🏆 WON
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2
Iamimmaculate 7/2 6TH
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3
Kirkland Sioux 11/2 5TH