← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Irish Stallion Farms EBF Vincent O'Brien Ruby Stakes (Listed)
Mr Fox’s call
Hardy Warrior
SPECULATIVE Advised 7/4 Est. 38%
Mr Fox says
Hardy Warrior (SR 114, 7/4) is comfortably the highest-rated runner in this field by a clear margin — 9 points clear of Carolina Jetstream (SR 105) — and carries the lightest weight of any competitive runner at 9-3, a meaningful edge in a Listed contest. As the Joseph Patrick O'Brien yard's designated number-one (ridden by Dylan Browne McMonagle, the yard's premium jockey booking at 15% career strike rate versus McDonogh on stable companion Quebec at 8%), all stable signals point here. DistFit:+ confirms proven ability at this trip, the mark has dropped 3lb since last win (MarkMv:-3 is a positive), and while GoingFit:? reflects limited good-ground data, nothing in the form string (4-1344) suggests a ground-sensitive profile. The market at 7/4 is the shortest price in the field and there has been no drift — money is confident. Each-way alternative: Carolina Jetstream. Main danger: Carolina Jetstream — Carolina Jetstream (SR 105, 5/1) has DistFit:+ AND GoingFit:+ — the only runner in the field with both confirmed — and carries just 9-4, with trainer Robson De Aguiar posting a healthy 14% strike rate; the MarkMv:+13 is a concern but the going and trip fit are the strongest in the race.
Full result
Winner: Jagged Edge (IRE) at SP 7/2. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Jagged Edge Fox #3 4/1
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2
Carolina Jetstream Fox #2 5/2
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3
Hardy Warrior Fox #1 15/8
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4
Moonlit Sun Fox #4 13/2
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5
Quebec 50/1
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6
East Hampton 20/1
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7
Wearing Stars 33/1
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8
Rion Rubette 25/1
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9
Syzygy 16/1
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10
Subsonic 25/1
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—
Cristal Clere 50/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
Hardy Warrior 7/4 🥉 3RD
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2
Carolina Jetstream 5/1 🥈 2ND
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3
Jagged Edge 7/2 SP 7/2 🏆 WON
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4
Moonlit Sun 11/2 🏁 4TH