← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
HR Buddy (Q.R.) Race
Mr Fox’s call
Murat
SPECULATIVE Advised 5/2 Est. 32%
Mr Fox says
Murat (SR 87, 5/2) carries 11-11 as topweight but brings the key asset in this amateur/QR contest: proven distance form (DistFit:+) on good ground, with a recent form line of 7-1 showing a decisive last-time-out win just 43 days ago. Peter Lawlor's yard runs at a respectable 14% and Mr H C Swan posts 15% on 157 rides, both solid for this sphere. Samui holds the highest SR (109) but has drifted 15% in the market and hasn't raced in 405 days — a 13-month absence is a major red flag regardless of ability, and the trip is unproven (DistFit:?). Ragmans Corner (SR 94, 2/1) is the market rival but carries a MarkMv:-46 which tells us the handicapper has lowered expectations significantly, reflecting a poor recent sequence of 3-3-3-0-8; the 6% market support is noted but modest. Murat's last-time-out win at this trip, combined with the most relevant recent form in the field, makes it the clearest selection. Each-way alternative: Ragmans Corner. Main danger: Ragmans Corner — Ragmans Corner (SR 94, 2/1) is the market favourite with a 6% move in, holds the second-best SR in the field, and the MarkMv:-46 drop gives it a very lenient current mark — if the recent poor run of 3-3-3-0-8 was going or trip-related rather than permanent decline, it bounces here at a very winnable weight of 11-7.
Full result
Winner: Ragmans Corner (IRE) at SP 11/10F. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Ragmans Corner Fox #2 2/1
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2
Murat Fox #1 15/8
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3
Glowing Account Fox #4 12/1
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4
Samui Fox #3 9/4
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5
Can Happen 11/1
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6
Supreme Law 250/1
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7
Simpletwistoffaith 250/1
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8
Silas Marner 200/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
Murat 5/2 🥈 2ND
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2
Ragmans Corner 2/1 SP 11/10F 🏆 WON
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3
Samui 15/8 🏁 4TH
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4
Glowing Account 11/1 🥉 3RD