← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Advance Online Digital Media Group Handicap Stakes
Mr Fox’s call
Mountbatten
SPECULATIVE Advised 7/4 Est. 38%
Mr Fox says
Mountbatten (SR 85, 7/4) holds the best Saturday Rating in the field by a clear margin over Hebridean Nomad (SR 81), and crucially carries only 9-4 — 7lb less than the two 9-11 runners — making that SR edge even more meaningful in weight-adjusted terms. The market has steamed 21% from its opening price, representing genuine confidence from the connections of Sir Mark Prescott's yard, a trainer who runs horses to win when they are ready (19% strike rate from 309 runners). DistFit:+ confirms proven ability at today's trip, and while GoingFit:? reflects limited evidence on good ground, Lingfield AW good is a consistent surface that rarely disadvantages a horse with strong form. The form string 77-142 shows a progressive arc — two recent placings followed by a win, then a runner-up last time — and at 13 days since last run, the horse is fresh but not a layoff risk. Each-way alternative: Hebridean Nomad. Main danger: Hebridean Nomad — Hebridean Nomad (SR 81, 9/4) has a Course:W1P2 record at Lingfield, GoingFit:+ confirmed, and Andrew Balding's 19% strike rate is strong — the drift of 13% is the one concern, but course specialists on a track they know well can overcome market nerves.
Full result
Winner: Last Verse (IRE) at SP 11/1. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Last Verse 18/1
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2
Hebridean Nomad Fox #2 11/2
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3
Betelgeuse 12/1
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4
Virtue Diligence 22/1
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5
Last Trump Fox #3 4/1
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6
Mountbatten Fox #1 8/11
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
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2
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3