← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Blackwell Earthmoving 70th Anniversary Handicap Stakes (GBBPlus Race)
Mr Fox’s call
Goblet Of Fire
SPECULATIVE Advised 2/1 Est. 32%
Mr Fox says
Goblet Of Fire (SR 96, 2/1) carries 9-12 which is top-weight but only 4lb clear of the next-heaviest and steps DOWN a class (ClassMv:↓1) — a meaningful advantage in this tight SR field where all five sit within 4 points of each other (93-97). Nicky Henderson at 24% strike rate is comfortably the best-performing trainer in the field and Ashley Lewis has a solid book record at 15%. The form 21-513 shows a recent third and a win/second earlier in the sequence, and a drop in class typically unlocks the improvement needed to convert. The main caveat is MarkMv:+9 meaning the mark is 9lb higher than at last win, which is the principal risk, but class relief and top stable offset that concern sufficiently to make this the pick at 2/1. Each-way alternative: Sixpack. Main danger: Sixpack — Sixpack (SR 97, 9/2) is the joint-highest-rated runner, carries a favourable 9-8, holds Course:W1P2 form at Newmarket July which is a meaningful specialist edge, and a confirmed GoingFit:+ on today's Good to Firm means the ground suits — the 15% drift is the only thing keeping it off the top spot.
Full result
Winner: Arqoob (IRE) at SP 15/2. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
-
1
Arqoob Fox #3 11/2
-
2
Goblet Of Fire Fox #1 15/8
-
3
Sixpack Fox #2 5/1
-
4
Pearl River 4/1
-
5
Bulletin 7/2
Top 4 — how each finished
-
1
-
2
-
3