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Polhill Cutting Handicap Stakes
Mr Fox’s call
Diomed Duke
SPECULATIVE Advised 11/8 Est. 35%
Mr Fox says
Diomed Duke (SR 86, 11/8) is the Stuart Williams yard's #1 runner — Olivia Haines takes the 7lb claim reducing the effective weight to 9-3, negating much of the MarkMv:+5 concern, and the market has shortened 19% since opening, a clear signal of stable confidence. The 3-5521 form string shows consistent placed form culminating in a last-time-out win, and the trainer's 14% strike rate with 486 career runners is solid. GoingFit:~ on good to firm is the one caveat, and the DistFit:- at 5f is a genuine flag — but the weight-adjusted advantage over Lara Antipova (the danger) and the strong market move make Diomed Duke the most compelling overall package. The yard is clearly targeting this race with the stronger jockey booking going to this horse over stablemate Maelstrom. Each-way alternative: Lara Antipova. Main danger: Lara Antipova — Lara Antipova (SR 87, 3/1) is the highest-rated runner, carries only 9-11, has confirmed DistFit:+ and GoingFit:+ for today's conditions, and a form string of 2-2142 showing genuine consistency — the drift to 3/1 from likely shorter is the only concern.
Full result
Winner: Maelstrom (GB) at SP 5/1. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Maelstrom 11/2
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2
Fantasy Master Fox #4 8/1
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3
Diomed Duke Fox #1 15/8
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4
Tiva Fox #3 11/4
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5
Lara Antipova Fox #2 3/1
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6
Beauzon 100/1
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7
Aspull 100/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
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2
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3
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4