← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Old Market Lane Traders Novice Steeplechase
Mr Fox’s call
Emily Love
SPECULATIVE Advised 4/1 Est. 32%
Mr Fox says
Emily Love (SR:129, 4/1, 10-13) is the most compelling package in this field. Her GoingFit:+ is the only confirmed going advantage in the race — both Mullins runners carry GoingFit:-, and Butch Cassidy is unproven (GoingFit:?). She carries the lightest weight at 10-13, giving her a 11lb pull on Uncle Pat (11-10) and 7lb on Butch Cassidy — a material advantage at 2m7f. Her form 41-F13 shows a win last time out, the Fall was a one-off interruption, and Jack Kennedy (19%, 626 runners) is a clear upgrade over the Mullins second-string booking of Daniel King (9%). Gordon Elliott's 15% strike rate over a huge sample (1,744) adds further confidence. MarkMv:-4 means she's running off a mark 4lb lower than her last win — that's a direct structural edge. Each-way alternative: Uncle Pat. Main danger: Uncle Pat — Uncle Pat (SR:143, 2/1) is the highest-rated horse in the field and Mullins' #1 runner by SR margin, and despite GoingFit:- and a 12lb higher mark than his last win, his raw ability edge and market support at 2/1 mean he is capable of grinding this out over 2m7f if the ground plays closer to his range.
Full result
Winner: Butch Cassidy (IRE) at SP 1/2F. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Butch Cassidy Fox #3 evn
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2
Uncle Pat Fox #2 9/4
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3
Yoradreamer 11/4
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4
Battle Of Benburb 200/1
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Emily Love Fox #1 4/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
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2
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3