← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Neu-Servo Supports Larsen's Pride Mares' Handicap Hurdle Race
Mr Fox’s call
Diamond White
SPECULATIVE Advised 3/1 Est. 28%
Mr Fox says
Diamond White (SR:92, 3/1) is the clear ability leader in this field by a meaningful margin — 2lb ahead of Mya Du Clos (SR:90) but carrying 10-12 more pounds than her rivals lower in the weights. The drop in class (ClassMv:↓1) is an important positive signal, and Jonjo O'Neill Jr. (20% strike rate, 69 career runs) provides a strong jockey booking. The 3/1 market price implies ~25% win probability, broadly in line with this assessment, and while both DistFit and GoingFit are unproven (?), the absence of a confirmed negative record is a neutral rather than a damaging factor. The weight burden of 12-0 is the main concern in a 13-runner Class 5 hurdle, but SR superiority and class drop together outweigh that worry. Each-way alternative: Kylenoe Dancer. Main danger: Kylenoe Dancer — Kylenoe Dancer (SR:83, 5/1) has steamed in 21% in the market — the strongest market move in the field — carries a light 10-8, sports first-time cheekpieces, and Tom Bellamy (16% strike rate) is a reliable booking; the money clearly knows something.
Full result
Winner: The Secret Pearl (IRE) at SP 12/1. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
The Secret Pearl 16/1
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2
Klervia 22/1
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3
Forest Spirit 14/1
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4
La Lolita 16/1
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5
Mya Du Clos Fox #3 17/2
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6
Diamond White Fox #1 3/1
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7
Blue Siam 33/1
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8
Kylenoe Dancer Fox #2 9/2
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9
Kottayam 28/1
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10
Joto 8/1
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11
Lady Harriett 9/1
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—
Mrs Biddle Fox #4 6/1
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—
Medina Blue 10/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
Diamond White 3/1 6TH
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2
Kylenoe Dancer 5/1 8TH
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3
Mya Du Clos 4/1 5TH
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4
Mrs Biddle 6/1