← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Tally-Ho Stud Irish EBF Ballyogan Stakes (Group 3)
Mr Fox’s call
Soul Love
SPECULATIVE Advised 5/2 Est. 32%
Mr Fox says
Soul Love (SR 118, 5/2) carries the joint-lowest weight at 9-4 and posts the highest SR in the field — a meaningful double advantage. The form string -19131 shows a horse that has won three of its last four completed starts and is arriving at the same mark as its last win (MarkMv:=), meaning the handicapper has not punished recent success. Critically, the market has shortened 18% since opening, which is significant speculative money in an eight-runner Group 3 field, and both DistFit and GoingFit are confirmed positives on today's 5f205y trip and good ground. K.R. Burke's 19% career strike rate with Pierre-Louis Jamin (14%) is a sharp yard-jockey combination handling the cross-channel assignment with evident intent. Each-way alternative: Dancing Saxon. Main danger: Havana Anna — Havana Anna (SR 113, 5/2) is proven at today's trip and on today's going (DistFit:+, GoingFit:+) and though the 17% drift is a concern, it is only 3lb off Soul Love on SR and shares the same light weight of 9-4, making it fully capable of reversing the market's current preference on the day.
Full result
Winner: Chantez (IRE) at SP 28/1. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
-
1
Chantez 40/1
-
2
Soul Love Fox #1 7/4
-
3
Dancing Saxon Fox #3 15/2
-
4
Havana Anna Fox #2 5/2
-
5
First Instinct Fox #4 2/1
-
6
Focaccia 150/1
-
7
Temperance 66/1
-
8
Treasure Rose 80/1
Top 4 — how each finished
-
1
Soul Love 5/2 🥈 2ND
-
2
Havana Anna 5/2 🏁 4TH
-
3
Dancing Saxon 15/2 🥉 3RD
-
4
First Instinct 7/4 5TH