← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Big Evs At Tally-Ho Handicap
Mr Fox’s call
Simmering Seas
SPECULATIVE Advised 6/4 Est. 32%
Mr Fox says
Simmering Seas (SR:61, 6/4) shares the field's joint-highest SR alongside Tawaazon and Dandy Land but carries the lightest weight of those three at 9-8, a meaningful edge in a 19-runner sprint handicap. The market has backed it in 20% since opening, confirming confidence from connections, and Daniel James Murphy's stable runs at a solid 11% strike rate. The form string 07-602 shows a recent runner-up finish and the horse is only 9 days since last run, suggesting a horse in a racing routine and ready to go. The main concern is DistFit:- and GoingFit:-, meaning proven struggles at this trip and on good ground — but the SR lead, weight advantage over rivals, and strong market drift inward make it the most defensible selection in a wide-open field. Each-way alternative: Tawaazon. Main danger: Tawaazon — Tawaazon (SR:61, 4/1) matches Simmering Seas on SR, has steamed in 41% in the market — the strongest inbound move in the field — and carries only 1lb more at 9-13, with course form (W0P1) at Naas that Simmering Seas lacks, though the DistFit:- and GoingFit:- tags are a genuine concern.
Full result
Winner: Steel Magnolia (IRE) at SP 7/2J. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
-
1
Steel Magnolia Fox #4 11/2
-
2
Whatswrongnow 25/1
-
3
Little Roy 66/1
-
4
Simmering Seas Fox #1 7/4
-
5
Tawaazon Fox #2 7/2
-
6
Niobite 80/1
-
7
Gordon Bennett 14/1
-
8
Dandy Land Fox #3 11/2
-
9
Hasiyna 40/1
-
10
Aurora Nova 20/1
-
11
Step Back In Time 12/1
-
12
Nebrook Star 28/1
-
13
Pansy Poe 40/1
-
14
I'm Spartacus 10/1
-
15
Prada's World 50/1
-
16
Smart Sioux 66/1
-
17
Amanirenas 40/1
-
18
Menwirr 40/1
-
19
Lismacbryan 100/1
Top 4 — how each finished
-
1
Simmering Seas 6/4 🏁 4TH
-
2
Tawaazon 4/1 5TH
-
3
Dandy Land 13/2 8TH
-
4
Steel Magnolia 15/2 SP 7/2J 🏆 WON