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Blackmore Building Contractors Handicap Stakes
Mr Fox’s call
South Shore
SPECULATIVE Advised 11/4 Est. 32%
Mr Fox says
South Shore carries the highest SR in the field at 83 — a clear edge over nearest rivals Nogo's Dream (79) and Em Four/Merrimack (both 77) — and does so on a favourable weight of 9-5, giving away only modest lumps to rivals rated lower. The form string 531122 reads as a horse in excellent recent form, with back-to-back wins, and at 7 days since last run that freshness is current. Running at the same class (ClassMv:=) means no penalty for stepping up in grade, and while GoingFit:~ rather than + is a slight question mark on this good-to-firm ground, the SR superiority and current form momentum are compelling. Marco Ghiani (14%, 893 rides) is an experienced handler for this type of sprint. Each-way alternative: Nogo's Dream. Main danger: Nogo's Dream — Nogo's Dream has a GoingFit:+ on today's ground, a MarkMv:-5 meaning it is running off a mark 5lb below its last win (a significant handicapper's advantage), and Billy Loughnane's 19% career strike rate is the best jockey stat in the field — the 19% market drift is more likely explained by the first-time headgear flag than any genuine concern, and at 10/3 there is residual value if the blinkers-off experiment settles it.
Full result
Winner: Em Four (GB) at SP 4/1. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Em Four Fox #3 7/2
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2
South Shore Fox #1 5/2
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3
Kento 10/1
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4
Merrimack Fox #4 8/1
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5
Secret Handsheikh 5/1
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6
Nogo's Dream Fox #2 3/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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4