← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Ian Carnaby Handicap Stakes
Mr Fox’s call
Blue Anthem
SPECULATIVE Advised 5/4 Est. 32%
Mr Fox says
Blue Anthem (SR:69, 5/4) is the standout case on multiple converging signals. A mark drop of 13lb since last win is the single most striking data point in this field — that's a massive handicapper's gift at Class 6 level, and combined with a class drop (↓1), this is a horse set up to win. GoingFit:+ confirms proven ability on today's good-to-firm ground, which is directly relevant given the sharp Brighton track. Billy Loughnane at 19% strike rate is the strongest jockey booking in the race, and the market has steamed in 41% — the money has found this runner emphatically. The recent form string 950088 looks ugly on the surface but the mark drop of 13lb explains why those efforts can be discounted; off this reduced mark with proven ground conditions, the profile flips entirely. Each-way alternative: Dark Sun. Main danger: Dark Sun — Dark Sun (SR:71, 11/2) is the highest-rated horse in the field, has steamed in 59% in the market — the most dramatic move after Blue Anthem — and despite GoingFit:- is clearly attracting serious money that may have inside knowledge of improved going tolerance.
Full result
Winner: Dark Sun (GB) at SP 5/1. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Dark Sun Fox #2 9/2
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2
Be An Angel 11/2
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3
Blue Anthem Fox #1 11/10
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4
Nordic Glory 12/1
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5
The Organiser 7/2
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—
Von Krolock Fox #4 11/4
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Rye Fox #3 4/1
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Unico 12/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
Blue Anthem 5/4 🥉 3RD
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2
Dark Sun 11/2 SP 5/1 🏆 WON
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3
Rye 4/1
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4
Von Krolock 11/4