← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
National Racehorse Week Nursery Handicap Stakes
Mr Fox’s call
Forest Berry
MEDIUM Advised 8/11 SP 4/5F Est. 48%
Mr Fox says
Forest Berry (SR:78, 8/11) is the class standout in this Class 6 nursery — an SR of 78 dwarfs the next best Bluestone Lady at 68, with the rest of the field clustered between 38-49, which is well below any competitive threshold. The market has shortened 16% since opening (Mkt:in16%), confirming money is behind this selection, not just public sentiment. Dropping two class levels (ClassMv:↓2) from a horse trained by Sir Mark Prescott — who operates at a 19% strike rate — with a recent win in the form string (Form:724241, rightmost = last run being a '1') points to a horse in form and facing significantly inferior opposition. Luke Morris at 11% is workmanlike but Prescott's record of placing horses precisely means the yard's confidence in this spot is the key signal. Each-way alternative: Bluestone Lady. Main danger: Bluestone Lady — Bluestone Lady (SR:68, 4/1) has a proven course record (W1P1 at Musselburgh), moderate distance and going fit (DistFit:~ GoingFit:~), and despite drifting 18% has blinkers applied for the first time (HG:b) which can galvanise a 2yo — her '4' last time out at a lower mark makes her the likeliest of the remainder to close the SR gap to Forest Berry.
Full result
Winner: Forest Berry (GB) at SP 4/5F. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Forest Berry Fox #1 4/6
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2
Astral Calling Fox #3 8/1
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3
Bluestone Lady Fox #2 6/1
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4
Bonjour Belle 18/1
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5
Le Grand Etoile 10/1
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6
The Resdev Rocket 12/1
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7
Rule Of The Agency 20/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
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2
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3