Hollymount Nursing Home Handicap Hurdle

17:26 Ballinrobe Mon 24 Aug 2026 2m2f60y Good 6 runners

Mr Fox’s call

Ocean Murphy

SPECULATIVE Advised 11/4 SP 5/2 Est. 32%

🏆 WON

Mr Fox says

Ocean Murphy (SR:106, 11/4) is the pick. The 12% market steam is the standout signal in this field — money is moving with purpose and the market is rarely wrong at this level without a reason. Darragh O'Keeffe (14% career strike rate, 909 runners) is a significant booking upgrade over the journeymen riders elsewhere. The form string 74-912 shows a last-time-out second and the race before a win, confirming peak current form, and a GoingFit:~ on good ground is workable rather than prohibitive. Carrying only 10-4 gives a meaningful weight advantage over top-weighted Manoir De Mirande (11-12) despite the SR gap, and MarkMv:+6 is a modest enough rise not to be a dealbreaker given the trajectory. Each-way alternative: Manoir De Mirande. Main danger: O'Grady Cracker — O'Grady Cracker (SR:111, 6/4) is top-rated, brings J J Slevin who is a significant jockey, and a last-two-run form of 1-1 is compelling recent form — though the MarkMv:+13 rise and GoingFit:? introduce enough risk to keep it off the top spot.

Verify· #14059

Full result

Winner: Ocean Murphy (GB) at SP 5/2. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.

1 Ocean Murphy Fox #1 P J Rothwell · Darragh O'Keeffe 5/2
2 Houndsworth Mark Michael McNiff · Alan King(7) 8/1
3 Manoir De Mirande Fox #2 Gordon Elliott · Joshua Halford(7) 7/2
4 Nile Star Ross O'Sullivan · Shane Markey(7) 16/1
5 O'Grady Cracker Fox #3 Andrew Slattery · J J Slevin 5/4
— William F Browne Paul W Flynn · Daniel King 20/1

Top 4 — how each finished

1 Ocean Murphy 11/4 SP 5/2 🏆 WON
2 Manoir De Mirande 11/4 🥉 3RD
3 O'Grady Cracker 6/4 5TH