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Hollow Bottom National Hunt Flat Race (Category 1 Elimination) (Conditional & Amateur Jockeys) (GBB Race)
Mr Fox’s call
Bombus Pascuorum
SPECULATIVE Advised 6/1 Est. 28%
Mr Fox says
Bombus Pascuorum (SR:94, 6/1) is the standout pick on the balance of signals. The 27% market steam — the most aggressive move in this field — suggests connections and informed money have strong confidence, and this is the clearest directional market signal in the race. Donald McCain's 9% strike rate is workmanlike but his runners that attract this kind of support tend to be live. The SR of 94 is second only to Roccana Rose (103) and Talladale (101), but Bombus Pascuorum carries only 10-13 versus Roccana Rose's 10-6 — a minor weight difference but the market is firmly backing the McCain runner. In a race of unraced or lightly raced bumper horses where form is largely a blank slate, the 27% market contraction is the most reliable signal available and it points clearly here. Each-way alternative: Talladale. Main danger: Talladale — Talladale (SR:101, 5/1) is trained by Tom Lacey who strikes at a healthy 17% from 226 runners — the best trainer strike rate among the shortlist — and the SR of 101 is competitive, making this a serious alternative if the McCain runner underperforms.
Full result
Winner: Goliath Power (FR) at SP 9/4F. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Goliath Power 11/4
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2
Roccana Rose Fox #3 6/4
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3
Talladale Fox #2 5/1
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4
Bombus Pascuorum Fox #1 7/1
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5
Guerdale 66/1
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6
On The Fly 66/1
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7
Pearl Cove 200/1
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8
Stand Proud 9/1
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Company Charge 14/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
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2
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3