← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
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Mr Fox’s call
Afraj
SPECULATIVE Advised 5/1 SP 11/1 Est. 28%
Mr Fox says
Afraj (SR:83, 5/1) combines the second-highest SR in the field with a 13% market shortening — the clearest money signal in this race — and carries a favourable 9-0 into a Class 4 handicap. The Gosden/Buick combination (24%/20% strike rates respectively) is the most potent trainer-jockey pairing declared, and DistFit:+ confirms she handles this 7f trip. Her 1-334 form shows a winner followed by consistent placed efforts, suggesting she is a reliable performer running at a fair mark (ClassMv:=). The drift on Shushu (Mkt:out30%) and the market steaming into Afraj rather than the higher-SR Merry makes the case compelling. Each-way alternative: Merry. Main danger: Merry — Merry (SR:86, 7/2) is the highest-rated runner with Course:W1P2 at Kempton and DistFit:+, and despite a 9% trainer strike rate, the course specialist profile and top SR make her the most likely alternative winner.
Full result
Winner: Afraj (IRE) at SP 11/1. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Afraj Fox #1 6/1
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2
Merry Fox #2 7/2
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3
Ghisa Fox #3 7/2
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4
Sahana 28/1
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5
Bridget's View 15/2
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6
Ribenska 11/2
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7
Star Mirage 12/1
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8
Paris Babe 28/1
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9
Shushu Fox #4 6/1
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—
Musical Angel 20/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
Afraj 5/1 SP 11/1 🏆 WON
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2
Merry 7/2 🥈 2ND
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3
Ghisa 9/2 🥉 3RD
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4
Shushu 13/2 9TH