← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Paul Kavanagh Memorial AJA Novice Flat Amateur Jockeys' Handicap Stakes (For Jockeys With Three Wins Or Fewer At Start Of Season)
Mr Fox’s call
Up The Jazz
SPECULATIVE Advised 5/1 Est. 30%
Mr Fox says
Up The Jazz (SR:72, 5/1, 11-4) leads the field on ability and is the subject of a dramatic 32% market move in, the strongest steaming in the field by some margin — money that is meaningful in an amateur jockeys' handicap. The form string 361275 reads right-to-left as a recent 5th, then 7th, then 2nd, 1, 6, 3 — the last win is live and the horse is on the same mark (+4) as that success, suggesting connections feel it is well-placed. Course:W1P1 at Carlisle adds a specialist edge rarely available in a 9-runner field at this level, and GoingFit:~ confirms the good ground is not a concern. The 32% steam combined with top SR and course form is a compelling multi-signal case. Each-way alternative: Sanafi Zabeel. Main danger: Sanafi Zabeel — Sanafi Zabeel (SR:70, 9/4) boasts the strongest distance and going fit in the race — DistFit:+ and GoingFit:+ on today's good ground at 1m1f — and last-time-out form 933451 shows a recent win at the same class and same mark (+4), making it the most course-and-conditions-proven runner despite the 16% drift which may simply reflect the amateur nature of the booking.
Full result
Winner: Jewel Maker (IRE) at SP 13/2. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Jewel Maker 15/2
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2
Up The Jazz Fox #1 4/1
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3
Sanafi Zabeel Fox #2 15/8
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4
Titian 9/1
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5
Eagles Dream 20/1
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6
Pedro The Poet 11/1
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7
On The Bubble 16/1
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8
Epidavros Fox #3 9/2
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Spirit Catcher -
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
Up The Jazz 5/1 🥈 2ND
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2
Sanafi Zabeel 9/4 🥉 3RD
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3
Epidavros 5/1 8TH