← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Colin Parker Raceday 1st Nov Nursery Handicap Stakes
Mr Fox’s call
Ten Clarets
SPECULATIVE Advised 2/1 Est. 38%
Mr Fox says
Ten Clarets (SR 85, 2/1) leads the field on ability and has been dramatically supported in the market — shortening 37% to go favourite, the strongest market move in the race by a wide margin. The K.R. Burke yard operates at 19% career strike rate from 716 runners, a top-tier operation for juvenile nurseries, and Pierre-Louis Jamin is a capable booking. The 4-2-3 form line (recent 3rd from a 4-2 sequence) shows consistent competitiveness at this level, and ClassMv:= means no class adjustment headache. At 9-9 Kanzi carries the same weight with a lower SR of 81, and the market's conviction on Ten Clarets — not Kanzi — is decisive here. Each-way alternative: Kanzi. Main danger: Kanzi — Kanzi (SR 81, 9/4) has a tidy 2-1 form line suggesting a progressive two-year-old who won last time out just 19 days ago, carries identical weight to Ten Clarets at 9-9, and the Charlie Johnston yard at 13% from 1324 runners knows how to place juveniles — the drift from opening price may simply reflect bookmaker caution rather than negative stable intelligence.
Full result
Winner: Bincimbal (IRE) at SP 9/4. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
-
1
Bincimbal Fox #3 5/2
-
2
Emerald Bay 11/2
-
3
Ten Clarets Fox #1 9/4
-
4
Aurora Valkyrie 20/1
-
5
Kanzi Fox #2 5/2
Top 4 — how each finished
-
1
-
2
-
3