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Bni Elli Maiden Stakes (GBB/GBBPlus Race)
Mr Fox’s call
Phantom Recon
SPECULATIVE Advised 11/1 Est. 22%
Mr Fox says
Phantom Recon (SR 140, 11/1) holds the second-highest SR in the field and is trained by George Scott whose 18% career strike rate is the best among all trainers represented here. While the market has drifted 33%, this is a genuinely open maiden where the two market leaders carry significant question marks — Blue Hercules has a confirmed poor record at today's distance (DistFit:-) and Winday hasn't run in 327 days. At 11/1, Phantom Recon represents the best combination of proven ability (SR 140 is competitive handicap range) and a trainer whose runners can be trusted to perform when fit after a 69-day break. The form reads 4-4, consistent placed efforts that suggest a horse ready to graduate. Each-way alternative: Neswick. Main danger: Neswick — Neswick carries the highest SR in the field at 147, has a 5lb weight advantage over the main field at 9-2, and despite drifting 21% in the market, that SR edge is real and could prove decisive if the market has simply overlooked the form.
Full result
Winner: Winday (FR) at SP 11/8. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Winday Fox #3 11/10
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2
Blue Hercules 7/4
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3
Neswick Fox #2 10/1
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4
Phantom Recon Fox #1 11/1
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5
Pacific Storm 40/1
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—
Saaffya 12/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
Phantom Recon 11/1 🏁 4TH
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2
Neswick 17/2 🥉 3RD
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3
Winday 5/4 SP 11/8 🏆 WON