← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Celebrate National Racehorse Week Maiden Fillies' Stakes (gbb/gbbplus Race)
Mr Fox’s call
Scrappetalene
SPECULATIVE Advised 3/1 Est. 32%
Mr Fox says
Scrappetalene (SR:154, 3/1) matches Please Don't Go on the highest SR in the field but carries meaningful market confidence — shortening 11% since opening — while Please Don't Go has drifted 5%. Charlie Johnston (13% strike rate, 1,324 runners) is a formidable operation and Rob Hornby is a reliable booking. The single run of 5th suggests untapped potential on an opening effort, and the market is clearly pointing at improvement here. Please Don't Go's 0-4 form line (a zero and a 4th) suggests two runs without a win and, despite the equal SR, the drift versus Scrappetalene's steam is a decisive differentiator. Each-way alternative: Please Don't Go. Main danger: Please Don't Go — Please Don't Go shares the joint-top SR of 154 with Cieren Fallon (19% strike rate) aboard, and two runs at this class give connections a clearer picture of where the filly is — if she's ready to break her duck, the talent is clearly there.
Full result
Winner: Thuritha (GB) at SP 4/1. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Thuritha Fox #3 13/2
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2
Please Don't Go Fox #2 13/8
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3
Scrappetalene Fox #1 11/4
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4
Kiah 2/1
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Boomshakalak 200/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
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2
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3