← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Navan Racecourse Nursery Handicap
Mr Fox’s call
Supreme Lord
SPECULATIVE Advised 2/1 SP 11/8F Est. 32%
Mr Fox says
Supreme Lord (SR 76, 2/1) shares the top SR rating with Howlin Wolf but carries 9-12 — only 6lb more than the lightest runners — and crucially is ridden by Dylan Browne McMonagle (15% career strike rate, 1052 rides of experience), the strongest jockey booking in the race by a clear margin. Its form reads 3-5-5, showing consistent mid-field finishes that suggest a horse finding its level, and at a nursery handicap worth €9,000 over 5f180y on good to firm, the yard (Robson De Aguiar, 13%) is a competent handler. The market has stayed firm at 2/1 without drifting, which contrasts sharply with Howlin Wolf's 22% drift, suggesting the money is behind Supreme Lord rather than the rival sharing its SR. Each-way alternative: Someday Somewhere. Main danger: Howlin Wolf — Howlin Wolf (SR 76, 10/3) is the only runner with a proven DistFit:+ at today's trip and won last time out (form 7-7-4-1), but the 22% market drift and a MarkMv:+7 running off a mark 7lb higher than at its last win are significant concerns that temper its claims.
Full result
Winner: Supreme Lord (IRE) at SP 11/8F. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
-
1
Supreme Lord Fox #1 2/1
-
2
Howlin Wolf Fox #2 7/2
-
3
Lucy's Promise 14/1
-
4
Prince Of Peppard 9/2
-
5
Someday Somewhere Fox #3 4/1
-
6
Two Brigade 9/1
-
6
Little Diva 20/1
-
8
No Time Faults 50/1
Top 4 — how each finished
-
1
-
2
-
3