← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Dandara Homes Maiden Fillies' Stakes (GBB Race)
Mr Fox’s call
Zupa Trupa
SPECULATIVE Advised 17/2 Est. 35%
Mr Fox says
Zupa Trupa's SR of 147 is in a different league to the rest of this field — the next best is Withtearsinmyeyes at SR 96, a 51-point gulf that is enormous at maiden level. Ralph Beckett's yard strikes at 17% career and the market has shortened 15% since opening, suggesting connections are confident despite 261 days off. The single prior run of '4' gives a limited sample but the class step up (ClassMv:↑1) is irrelevant given the SR dominates — the danger is fitness after a long layoff, which Beckett's prep stats and the market move together help offset. At 17/2 the price reflects the fitness doubt but the raw ability advantage is too large to oppose. Each-way alternative: Withtearsinmyeyes. Main danger: Withtearsinmyeyes — Withtearsinmyeyes carries SR 96, the second-highest in the field, has a consistent form line of 2232 (placed every start), confirmed going fit, market shortened 10%, and is the 10/11 favourite — if Zupa Trupa is underdone after 261 days off, this filly's race fitness and consistency make her the most likely beneficiary.
Full result
Winner: Withtearsinmyeyes (IRE) at SP 1/1F. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Withtearsinmyeyes Fox #2 10/11
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2
Sydney Rock Fox #3 3/1
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3
Zupa Trupa Fox #1 11/2
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4
Graniteville 6/1
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5
Esplanade 50/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
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2
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3