← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Back A Winner - Birchwood Kia Chichester Handicap Chase
Mr Fox’s call
Youdecide
SPECULATIVE Advised 8/11 SP 8/13F Est. 42%
Mr Fox says
Youdecide (SR:85, 8/11) holds the strongest SR in the field by a clear margin — 2 points ahead of Helios Allen and 15+ above the rest — and arrives in winning form, last-time-out scorer at the same class and same mark (ClassMv:=, MarkMv:=). The 3-day turnaround is notable but not alarming for a 6-year-old in summer, and Ben Pauling's 20% strike rate with Ben Jones aboard at 19% represents a professional, in-form booking. The 12-7 top-weight is significant in a Class 5 chase but the SR advantage over the field is sufficient to absorb it. The main caveat is the lack of confirmed distance and going fitness (both DistFit:? and GoingFit:?) — this is a horse we cannot fully profile at 2m5f on good, but the form and class margin justify favouritism. Each-way alternative: Helios Allen. Main danger: Helios Allen — Helios Allen (SR:83, 13/2) has steamed in 23% in the market, carries a favourable 10-8 versus Youdecide's 12-7 — a 13lb weight advantage that partially offsets the 2-point SR deficit — and the late support suggests connections believe the trip and going suit despite the DistFit:? and GoingFit:? flags.
Full result
Winner: Youdecide (IRE) at SP 8/13F. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
-
1
Youdecide Fox #1 4/6
-
2
Helios Allen Fox #2 6/1
-
3
Edgewell 18/1
-
4
Of Corse I Can Fox #3 3/1
-
—
Pawpaw 22/1
-
—
King Of The Story 40/1
-
—
Ballinoulart 22/1
Top 4 — how each finished
-
1
-
2
-
3