← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Mares' Handicap Hurdle
Mr Fox’s call
Steal A Glance
SPECULATIVE Advised 2/1 Est. 35%
Mr Fox says
Steal A Glance (SR:93, 2/1) is the highest-rated runner in the field by a meaningful margin — 5lb clear of Camshaft (SR:88) and 10lb+ clear of the rest — and crucially carries only 10-11, a 13lb weight advantage over top-weight Camshaft (12-0). The class drop of one tier (ClassMv:↓1) puts this 4-year-old into a more winnable environment, and the market has backed this view aggressively with an 18% shortening since opening. While the recent form string 3-9552 shows some inconsistency, the last run was just 3 days ago suggesting the horse is fit and well, and connections would not run back so quickly without confidence. Trainer Anthony Honeyball at 17% strike rate is a solid operator, and the weight-plus-class combination is compelling at a still-reasonable price. Each-way alternative: Luna Run. Main danger: Camshaft — Camshaft (SR:88, 11/4) showed a win and a third in recent form (051-13) and is trained and ridden by the O'Neill combination with an 18% jockey strike rate, but the 21% market drift and a 6lb higher mark than at last win are real concerns that prevent it heading the shortlist.
Full result
Winner: Luna Run (IRE) at SP 2/1. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Luna Run Fox #3 15/8
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2
Athena's Dream 5/1
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3
Mobile Mamma 10/3
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4
Glorious Mist 40/1
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Camshaft Fox #2 9/4
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Steal A Glance Fox #1 2/1
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Lynsey Larue 14/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
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2
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3