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Free Bets On attheraces.com Handicap Hurdle
Mr Fox’s call
Raffles Nobu
SPECULATIVE Advised 3/1 Est. 32%
Mr Fox says
Raffles Nobu (SR 96, 3/1) is the highest-rated horse at a competitive mark with the most consistent recent form — a 342135 sequence shows he fires regularly and his last run was just 5 days ago, suggesting a yard happy to run him back quickly when conditions suit. He carries 11-6, a full 8lb less than top-weight God Of Fire (12-0) despite the SR gap being just one point (96 vs 97), giving him a meaningful weight advantage over the field's only serious SR rival. Nick Scholfield trains at 17% from 93 runners — a solid small-yard strike rate — and the MarkMv:+6 flag is manageable given the SR cushion he holds over the rest of the field. The GoingFit:~ (moderate rather than proven) is the caveat, but no horse here has a strong GoingFit:+ with a competitive SR. Each-way alternative: Aggagio. Main danger: God Of Fire — God Of Fire carries the joint-highest SR (97) with the yard's own jockey booking and a MarkMv:-1 (slight drop in mark), and although the 33% market drift and 12-0 top-weight are significant concerns, his last-time-out return of a '4' over a short break of just 13 days suggests he could strip fitter second time out this campaign.
Full result
Winner: Graffiti (GB) at SP 10/1. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Graffiti 10/1
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2
God Of Fire Fox #2 9/2
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3
Raffles Nobu Fox #1 10/3
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4
Aggagio Fox #3 4/1
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5
Best Night Fox #4 10/1
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6
Harry Gulliver 9/1
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7
Brave Guest 14/1
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8
Charlie My Boy 40/1
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9
Double Power 5/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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3
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4