← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Bodhi Creative Mares' Open National Hunt Flat Race (Category 1 Elimination) (GBB Race)
Mr Fox’s call
You Be Lucky Jean
SPECULATIVE Advised 7/2 SP 2/1F Est. 28%
Mr Fox says
You Be Lucky Jean (SR 109, 7/2) holds the highest Saturday Rating in the field and is the only runner with a win on her form card, having scored on debut — raw but clearly ahead of most rivals on ability metrics. Micky Hammond (14% strike rate, 86 runners) saddles her as the yard's #1 with Sean Quinlan booked, the superior jockey pairing compared to stablemate Grey Day's claimer Joshua Thompson. The 16% market drift is a concern and must be acknowledged, but the SR advantage of 4 points over next-best Megatothemax (SR 105) and 6 points over Reverse Charge (SR 103) in a field of largely unraced mares gives her a meaningful ability edge. Megatothemax at 4/1 is the each-way alternative — same class, recent debut third, strong market — while Reverse Charge is the danger given Jamie Snowden's elite 25% strike rate and Gavin Sheehan's 20% career record, even if the 10% drift tempers enthusiasm. Each-way alternative: Megatothemax. Main danger: Reverse Charge — Reverse Charge is trained by Jamie Snowden (25% career strike rate, 409 runners) and ridden by Gavin Sheehan (20%, 558 runners) — the best connections pairing in the race by a clear margin, and in bumpers quality connections often outweigh raw SR differentials with unraced stock.
Full result
Winner: You Be Lucky Jean (GB) at SP 2/1F. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
You Be Lucky Jean Fox #1 7/2
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2
Cumnock 12/1
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3
Youlooklikeyourmum 11/1
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4
Tottie's Moon 11/2
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5
Arc Kunoichi 12/1
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6
Megatothemax Fox #2 9/2
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7
Reverse Charge Fox #3 11/4
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8
Grey Day 10/1
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9
True Measure 66/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
You Be Lucky Jean 7/2 SP 2/1F 🏆 WON
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2
Megatothemax 4/1 6TH
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3
Reverse Charge 5/2 7TH