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Napoleons Casino And Restaurant Hull Handicap Stakes
Mr Fox’s call
L'Eagle Aid
SPECULATIVE Advised 4/1 Est. 30%
Mr Fox says
L'Eagle Aid (SR 72, 4/1, 9-13) is the highest-rated runner in a modest Class 5 field and combines that with the most compelling market signal of the race — a 17% inward move to 4/1 from a yard (Charlie Johnston, 13% strike rate) that doesn't fire without confidence. The drop of one class and a mark 3lb below last win suggest connections believe this trip and conditions suit despite carrying top-weight; the soft going query (GoingFit:?) is the key risk but the horse has shown consistent near-miss form (663533) suggesting it finds enough in this grade. Jason Hart (14%, 1348 rides) is an experienced booking and the combination of market support, class drop, and SR superiority over the field makes this the clearest case. Each-way alternative: Northern Brave. Main danger: Northern Brave — Northern Brave (SR 74, 4/1, 9-6) is the joint-second highest SR in the field, carries 7lb less than L'Eagle Aid at the same odds, and has steamed in 29% in the market — the sharpest move among the 4/1 shots — suggesting informed confidence that its recent 2nd at this class represents a horse in form and ready to go one better.
Full result
Winner: Valley Of Flowers (IRE) at SP 4/1. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Valley Of Flowers 6/1
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2
Unchartedterritory Fox #3 6/1
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3
Northern Brave Fox #2 10/3
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4
Mayaada 8/1
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5
Prince Of Calypso Fox #4 4/1
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6
L'Eagle Aid Fox #1 4/1
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7
Clansman 9/1
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8
Topathemorning 40/1
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Barak Warrior 9/2
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
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2
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3
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4