← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
BTRC Handicap Steeple Chase (GBB Race)
Mr Fox’s call
Kientzheim
SPECULATIVE Advised 6/1 Est. 30%
Mr Fox says
Kientzheim (SR 110, 6/1) is the Ben Haslam yard's #1 runner — evidenced by Harry Cobden's booking, a far superior jockey strike rate (21%, 208 rides) versus stablemate Passing Diamond's Richie McLernon (10%, 170 rides). Dropping a class (ClassMv:↓1) with a 10% market shortening signals trainer confidence, and the weight of 11-12 is manageable in a five-runner field where the top SR runner (Lermoos Legend, 112) is drifting badly at -15% and is an 11-year-old on a mark 6lb above last win. Kientzheim's form 12-35P includes some inconsistency, but the class drop, Cobden's positive record, and the steaming market combine to make this the most aligned case in the field. Each-way alternative: Palamon. Main danger: Palamon — Palamon (SR 109, 7/1) has the Skelton yard's formidable combination of trainer (21%) and jockey (27%) strike rates, has also steamed 10% in the market, and despite a poor going record the tongue-tie addition and a quick 10-day turnaround from connections who clearly like the horse's wellbeing suggest they are confident in running.
Full result
Winner: Passing Diamond (IRE) at SP 8/15F. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Passing Diamond 4/5
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2
Lermoos Legend Fox #3 7/1
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3
Palamon Fox #2 15/2
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4
Kientzheim Fox #1 6/1
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5
Tanking Along 6/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
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2
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3