← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Novice Stakes (gbb Race)
Mr Fox’s call
Crazee In Havana
MEDIUM Advised 2/1 Est. 42%
Mr Fox says
Crazee In Havana (SR 155, 2/1) is the standout on ability, carrying the lightest competitive weight at 9-4 and boasting an SR that dwarfs Minster Man's 95 and Roxa Love's 86 — a 60-point SR gap over the market leader is enormous. The market has identified this disparity too, steaming in 28% from the open, and the form string of 62 suggests progressive improvement with the latest run being a strong second. Minster Man (SR 95, 4/7) is a class-drop runner but that SR of 95 is workmanlike at best — the 2-class drop cannot paper over a 60-point SR deficit against Crazee In Havana. The market shortening on the favourite may reflect the drop in class, but the raw ability gap here is decisive. Each-way alternative: Mrs Blue. Main danger: Minster Man — Minster Man's 25% market steam and 2-class drop suggests connections believe the step down is significant, and if Crazee In Havana underperforms relative to the 62 form, the class relief could allow the favourite to coast to victory despite the SR gap.
Full result
Winner: Minster Man (IRE) at SP 2/5F. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Minster Man Fox #3 4/9
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2
Crazee In Havana Fox #1 5/2
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3
Mrs Blue Fox #2 11/1
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Roxa Love 9/4
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
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2
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3