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Sky Sports Racing Virgin 512 Nursery Handicap Stakes
Mr Fox’s call
Sea Palace
SPECULATIVE Advised 11/4 Est. 30%
Mr Fox says
Sea Palace (SR:79, 11/4) is the most compelling pick here despite a modest SR, primarily because of the 17% market move in — significant money arriving on a horse in a thin six-runner field demands respect. The form of 33 in nurseries is consistent rather than flashy, suggesting a horse that has run to a level and is likely improving, and the drop in class (ClassMv:↓1) means this is a softer opportunity than its last two starts. At 9-8 it shares top-weight with Dowman but critically avoids Dowman's massive 45% drift, which is a near-screaming market negative that overrides Dowman's superior SR of 89. Sangster/Donohoe are a low-profile combination but the market is speaking clearly. Each-way alternative: Pj's Corner. Main danger: Pj's Corner — Pj's Corner (SR:80, 7/2) has the best recent form trajectory in the field — an 8531 sequence showing a clear upward curve culminating in a win — is 15% shorter in the market, and carries the lightest weight of the leading trio at 9-4, giving it a genuine lbs edge over Sea Palace and Dowman.
Full result
Winner: Pj's Corner (GB) at SP 3/1J. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Pj's Corner Fox #2 11/4
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2
Perigord Noir 8/1
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3
Maximus Meridius Fox #3 17/2
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4
Ard As A Rock 7/1
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5
Dowman 11/4
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6
Sea Palace Fox #1 10/3
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South West -
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
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2
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3