← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Betmgm Solario Stakes (Group 3)
Mr Fox’s call
Mia Fantasia
SPECULATIVE Advised 9/2 Est. 28%
Mr Fox says
Mia Fantasia (SR 113, 9/2) is the highest-rated runner in this field alongside Alfred Wallace, but crucially carries confirmed DistFit:+ at today's 7f trip — the most important distance signal in a juvenile Group 3 over a trip that sorts out the stayers from the sprinters. Her form reads 1361 with the rightmost '1' representing a last-time-out win, and the market has moved aggressively in her favour (Mkt:in45%), the strongest steamer in the field. Hugo Palmer (12% strike rate, 768 runners) booking Marco Ghiani (14%, 908) is a solid juvenile connection, and stepping up one class (↑1) after winning at a lower level is precisely the profile of a progressive two-year-old. The MarkMv:+8 is a concern — she runs off a mark 8lb higher than her last win — but in a Group 3 weight-for-age contest this matters less than proven distance suitability and current form. Each-way alternative: Alfred Wallace. Main danger: Rock Montreal — Rock Montreal's Roger Varian/William Buick combination (both 20-21% strike rates) is formidable and a debut winner stepping up often improves sharply, meaning even with unknown distance/going fit he retains a realistic chance if his single win was achieved with something in hand.
Full result
Winner: Alfred Wallace (GB) at SP 11/4. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Alfred Wallace Fox #2 7/1
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2
Dover Street 40/1
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3
Breacher 3/1
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4
Green Sovereign 50/1
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5
Mia Fantasia Fox #1 9/2
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6
Kodiac City 28/1
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7
Sonic Angel Fox #3 6/1
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8
Firehorse 66/1
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Rock Montreal Fox #4 15/8
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Sergei Diaghilev -
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
Mia Fantasia 9/2 5TH
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2
Alfred Wallace 13/2 SP 11/4 🏆 WON
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3
Sonic Angel 9/2 7TH
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4
Rock Montreal 9/4