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Southwell Racecourse Conference & Events Handicap Stakes (Div II)
Mr Fox’s call
Roi de Coeur
SPECULATIVE Advised 9/4 Est. 35%
Mr Fox says
Roi de Coeur (SR 82, 9/4) is clearly the class leader in this field — his SR of 82 sits well above nearest rival Ballybunion (SR 72) and the rest — and his form string of 765125 shows a recent win (rightmost digits: last run was a 5, penultimate a 2, so the win came third-from-last) with consistent improvement. Crucially, the market has steamed in 15% since opening, the strongest positive market move in the field, suggesting informed support from Marco Botti's yard (15% strike rate, 429 runners — a solid operation). He carries 9-9, which is manageable against a modest Class 5 field, and at 9/4 the market is pricing him correctly as the standout. The MarkMv:+5 is a mild concern but his SR advantage is large enough to absorb the rise. Each-way alternative: Ballybunion. Main danger: Kiani King — Kiani King (SR 71, 7/2) has the lightest weight in the field at 9-2 giving him a 7lb pull on Roi de Coeur, Billy Loughnane's 19% strike rate is the best jockey booking on the card, and course form (W0P1) shows he handles Southwell — though GoingFit:- and a class rise are genuine concerns.
Full result
Winner: Kiani King (IRE) at SP 3/1. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Kiani King Fox #3 10/3
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2
Roi de Coeur Fox #1 5/2
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3
Ballybunion Fox #2 4/1
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4
Wise Crack 10/1
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5
Alkumatic Jo Jo 7/1
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6
Taradif 12/1
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7
Hunterian 18/1
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8
Boy Named Sioux Fox #4 18/1
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9
Jackabi 33/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
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2
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3
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4