← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Bath Country Race Day, Running 9 Till 5 Handicap Stakes
Mr Fox’s call
Just Adair
SPECULATIVE Advised 9/4 Est. 28%
Mr Fox says
Just Adair (SR:57, 9/4) is one of only two horses in this Class 6 field with an SR in the competitive range, and at age 4 carries the progressive profile that matters in a moderate handicap. The Mkt:in10% move — money arriving from 9/4 — is a meaningful signal in a field where most runners are drifting sharply. The form string 28-226 shows consistency at this level: placed in five of six career starts, never finishing worse than eighth, with the rightmost '6' (last run) explained by an unproven distance and going record (both DistFit:? and GoingFit:?) — today's conditions on good ground at 1m6f are at least not a demonstrated negative, unlike Fram Castle whose GoingFit:- is a concrete concern. Pat Cosgrave's 10% strike rate from 650 career rides gives the yard a reliable pilot, and the Jonjo & A.J. O'Neill yard's 12% strike rate from 155 runners is solid for a smaller operation. Each-way alternative: Basilette. Main danger: Basilette — Basilette (SR:59, 9/4) is the highest-rated horse in the field, holds a Course:W1P2 record at Bath, and has a confirmed DistFit:+ at today's trip — the course-and-distance specialisation is the single strongest piece of evidence in the race and could easily overpower Just Adair's market support.
Full result
Winner: Fram Castle (IRE) at SP 100/30. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Fram Castle Fox #3 11/4
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2
Basilette Fox #2 15/8
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3
Just Adair Fox #1 5/2
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4
Cherry Cola 16/1
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5
Notable Charm 11/1
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6
Prophet Squeeze 33/1
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7
Nora Barnacle 40/1
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8
Lady Lauren 40/1
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9
Alex The Great 25/1
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10
Trooper 66/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
Just Adair 9/4 🥉 3RD
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2
Basilette 9/4 🥈 2ND
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3
Fram Castle 11/4 SP 100/30 🏆 WON