← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Hampton By Hilton Hotel Handicap Stakes
Mr Fox’s call
Iris Dancer
SPECULATIVE Advised 4/1 Est. 28%
Mr Fox says
Iris Dancer (SR 62, 4/1) is the joint-highest rated runner in the field and carries a very manageable 9-8, giving her a weight edge over joint-SR-leader Impressor (9-1, but a 9-year-old with DistFit:-). The 42% market move inward is the most aggressive steam in this race and signals strong stable confidence from Tristan Davidson's yard (20% strike rate from 143 runners — the best trainer SR in this field). Her Course:W2P3 record at Hamilton is decisive context; she is a proven specialist at this track, now dropping two class tiers (ClassMv:↓2) off a mark 1lb lower than her last win. The 'b' headgear suggests connections are sharpening her up for a specific target. The going query (GoingFit:?) is the one caveat, but the class drop plus course expertise at 4/1 makes this a compelling case. Each-way alternative: Impressor. Main danger: Impressor — Impressor (SR 62, 6/1) matches Iris Dancer on SR, has steamed 47% into the market, carries a feather-weight 9-1, and boasts Course:W3P10 at Hamilton — the deepest course record in the field — with GoingFit:~ confirming he handles soft ground.
Full result
Winner: Big Apple Jack (GB) at SP 11/2. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Big Apple Jack Fox #4 15/2
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2
Lumenbourg Fox #3 7/1
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3
Valentine Catcher 9/2
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4
Lesley's Boy 18/1
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5
Camera Shy 25/1
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6
Doon The Glen 14/1
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7
Men Of Honour 12/1
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8
Mount Ruapehu 16/1
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9
Iris Dancer Fox #1 4/1
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10
White Umbrella 13/2
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11
Summerstorms Dream 25/1
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12
Impressor Fox #2 6/1
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13
Edgewater Drive 22/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
Iris Dancer 4/1 9TH
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2
Impressor 6/1 12TH
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3
Lumenbourg 6/1 🥈 2ND
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4
Big Apple Jack 6/1 SP 11/2 🏆 WON