← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Ebf Ashton In Makerfield Novice Stakes
Mr Fox’s call
Sharadd
SPECULATIVE Advised 11/8 SP 1/1F Est. 38%
Mr Fox says
Sharadd carries the field's highest SR at 156 — meaningfully clear of Time To Play (152) and the joint-third pair Chapel Stream and Playfull Warrior (both 148) — and is trained by William Haggas, whose 21% career strike rate is the standout yard stat in the race. The market has firmed 23% since opening to 11/8, representing the most significant inward move alongside Playfull Warrior, and Tom Marquand (13%, 1,192 rides) is a confident booking for a Haggas debutant at this level. In a field where all runners are either unraced or lightly exposed on soft 6f, SR leadership combined with the strongest trainer strike rate and clear market confidence is the most reliable convergence of signals available. Each-way alternative: Time To Play. Main danger: Playfull Warrior — Playfull Warrior has steamed in 33% — the sharpest market move in the race — Clive Cox operates at 15% and Hector Crouch at 17%, the best combined connections strike-rate pairing after Haggas/Marquand, and despite a single '0' last time the SR of 148 is strong enough to threaten if that debut run concealed more than it showed.
Full result
Winner: Sharadd (IRE) at SP 1/1F. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Sharadd Fox #1 11/8
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2
Al Arraab 10/1
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3
Deputy Vice 12/1
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4
Time To Play Fox #2 4/1
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5
Playfull Warrior Fox #3 9/1
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6
Powerful Force 9/1
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7
Chapel Stream Fox #4 13/2
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Does Mary Know -
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
Sharadd 11/8 SP 1/1F 🏆 WON
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2
Time To Play 4/1 🏁 4TH
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3
Playfull Warrior 17/2 5TH
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4
Chapel Stream 7/1 7TH