← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 / EBF Novice Stakes (GBB Race)
Mr Fox’s call
Mouj Albuhoor
SPECULATIVE Advised 11/8 Est. 42%
Mr Fox says
Mouj Albuhoor leads the field on SR at 155 — a clear 5-point edge over Saturn Star (SR 150) and a substantial 24-point gap over Lion Of God (SR 131). Priced at 11/8 with no market drift, the market is behind this runner. A single run showing a 5th-place finish from an unexposed 2-year-old trained by Richard Hughes (13% strike rate, 722 runners — a yard that targets novice races purposefully) suggests significant upside, and on level weights of 9-7 across all five runners there is no weight disadvantage to offset the SR superiority. The unknown distance and going fit (DistFit:? GoingFit:?) are mild concerns, but as a once-raced 2yo at this level, that uncertainty applies to the whole field. Each-way alternative: Saturn Star. Main danger: Saturn Star — Saturn Star carries SR 150 from the Ralph Beckett yard (17% career strike rate — the highest in the field), Saffie Osborne aboard at 14%, and while the market has drifted 5%, an unraced horse (form: dashes) from a top yard at 11/2 could easily be a well-schooled debutant with a significant upside that the SR only partially captures.
Full result
Winner: Lion Of God (IRE) at SP 33/1. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Lion Of God Fox #3 22/1
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2
Mouj Albuhoor Fox #1 11/10
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3
Kamaal 6/4
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4
Saturn Star Fox #2 13/2
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5
Blue Fox 40/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
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2
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3