Bettingsites.co.uk Novice Stakes (gbb/gbbplus Race)

18:10 Southwell (AW) Thu 03 Sep 2026 1m4f15y Class 3 Good 8 runners

Mr Fox’s call

Castlemont

MEDIUM Advised 1/2 SP 1/3F Est. 58%

🏆 WON

Mr Fox says

Castlemont (SR 155, 1/2) is the outstanding selection here by a significant margin — a 33-point SR advantage over the next-best Lucy The Wire (SR 144) and 69 points over the market's second-favourite Walking On Stars (SR 86). Trained by Charlie Appleby, whose 31% strike rate from 218 runners is elite-level, and ridden by Billy Loughnane (19%, 1,829 runners), this is a powerful yard sending out a lightly-raced 3yo with a winning debut on record, stepping into a weak Novice field at Class 3. The 1lb weight advantage over #1 and 4lb over #5 is marginal but the SR gap makes this a formality on ability terms. The 1/2 price fully reflects the case and there is nothing in this field that presents a credible threat on the data. Each-way alternative: Lucy The Wire. Main danger: Walking On Stars — Walking On Stars (SR 86, 7/2) has steamed in 16% in the market and Sir Mark Prescott's 20% yard strike rate commands respect — if Castlemont has an off-day on unfamiliar AW going, this is the horse most likely to pick up the pieces, though the SR gap of 69 points makes an upset highly unlikely.

Verify· #15877

Full result

Winner: Castlemont (IRE) at SP 1/3F. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.

1 Castlemont Fox #1 Charlie Appleby · Billy Loughnane 2/5
2 Walking On Stars Fox #3 Sir Mark Prescott Bt · Luke Morris 4/1
3 Liam Mera Kai Warren Greatrex · Harry Vigors(5) 20/1
4 Maestro Del Mar Ismail Mohammed & Jose Santos · Kyle McHugh(7) 14/1
5 Lucy The Wire Fox #2 James Owen · Mason Paetel(3) 18/1
6 Crystal Jet Toby Bulgin · George Downing 100/1
7 Star of The Desert Joey Ramsden · Callum Rodriguez 18/1
— Arco Sancho Ivan Furtado · Jason Hart 50/1

Top 4 — how each finished

1 Castlemont 1/2 SP 1/3F 🏆 WON
2 Lucy The Wire 16/1 5TH
3 Walking On Stars 7/2 🥈 2ND