← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
North Wales Business Day Novices' Hurdle Race (gbb Race)
Mr Fox’s call
Iamyouare
SPECULATIVE Advised 13/8 Est. 38%
Mr Fox says
Iamyouare (SR:114, 13/8) is a genuine contender despite carrying the lowest SR in the field. The market has shortened 13% since opening — meaningful money coming in on a 5-runner novice — and GoingFit:+ confirms proven ability on today's Good ground, a key differentiator in a field where every other runner shows GoingFit:?. At 10-7 versus 11-0 for the top two rated, Iamyouare enjoys a 7lb weight advantage over Hoe Joly Smoke and Sovereignlightcafe. The most important signal here is that the market favourite Hoe Joly Smoke (SR:123) has drifted 16% — serious money leaving a short-priced horse in a 5-runner field is a red flag that should not be ignored — and the raw form line 51-3F2 shows a horse that competes consistently and handles this class (stepping up ClassMv:↑1 but the going confidence gives a credible edge). Each-way alternative: Sovereignlightcafe. Main danger: Hoe Joly Smoke — Despite the 16% drift, Hoe Joly Smoke retains the Dan and Harry Skelton combination (trainer 21%, jockey 27%), a ClassMv:↓1 drop in grade, and SR:123 that is competitive — if the drift reflects simply an each-way price adjustment rather than a negative market signal, the yard's firepower could still see it win.
Full result
Winner: Hoe Joly Smoke (GB) at SP 13/8. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Hoe Joly Smoke Fox #2 10/11
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2
Iamyouare Fox #1 11/10
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3
Sovereignlightcafe Fox #3 16/1
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4
That Old Chestnut 25/1
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5
Whinny Houston 200/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
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2
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3