← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Lee Thomas Christy Memorial Ebf Fillies' Novice Stakes (gbb Race)
Mr Fox’s call
Girl Scout
SPECULATIVE Advised 11/4 SP 9/4 Est. 32%
Mr Fox says
Girl Scout (SR 155, 11/4) holds the marginal SR advantage in a closely-matched field and is trained by K.R. Burke, whose 19% strike rate is the best of any trainer represented here — a meaningful edge in a tight novice. Her form of 5-3 shows progressive improvement into a place at the same class level, and at 11/4 she is the market's second choice without any drift signal, suggesting stable confidence. The market on My Girl Dee Mo has drifted 13% — a clear negative signal for the favourite — which shifts the balance of probability toward Girl Scout at a better price. Each-way alternative: Highland Girl. Main danger: Highland Girl — Highland Girl (SR 154, 3/1) has steamed in 9% in the market with Hector Crouch booked — the strongest market move in the field — and her trainer Charlie Johnston, while a lower strike rate, runs a high-volume yard that knows when to back a runner.
Full result
Winner: Girl Scout (GB) at SP 9/4. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Girl Scout Fox #1 2/1
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2
Princess Lottie 10/3
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3
My Girl Dee Mo Fox #3 9/4
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4
Highland Girl Fox #2 7/2
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
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2
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3