← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
John Burke Mares' Maiden Hurdle Race (ARC Summer Novices' Brush Hurdle Series Qualifier) (GBB Race)
Mr Fox’s call
Elated
SPECULATIVE Advised 4/5 Est. 38%
Mr Fox says
Elated (SR 103, 4/5) is a narrow pick despite the lowest SR in the field because the data alignment is compelling on multiple fronts: a confirmed GoingFit:+ on today's good ground is the only horse in the field with that signal, the market has shortened 10% since opening to 4/5, trainer Ben Pauling operates at a 20% strike rate from 110 runners (a serious yard), and jockey Callum Pritchard at 13% is a workmanlike booking for this level. The form 3-332F shows consistent placed efforts before the fall — not a soundness concern but a jumping incident — and first-time cheekpieces (HG:p) are a classic Pauling move to sharpen a horse that keeps getting beaten into places. The SR is low but this is a maiden hurdle for mares at Class 4 where the going-fit advantage and yard confidence matter more than raw ability ratings. Each-way alternative: Steal A Glance. Main danger: Nala The Lioness — Nala The Lioness (SR 147, 11/1) has a market move of in9%, a course place to her name (W0P1 at Worcester), and is the second-highest rated horse that has actually jumped hurdles, making her a credible threat if the GoingFit:- concern proves overstated on today's good ground.
Full result
Winner: Galeforcechopper (GB) at SP 150/1. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Galeforcechopper 50/1
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2
Elated Fox #1 5/6
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3
Jury Roses Fox #4 11/2
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4
Morissette 33/1
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5
Mistral Milly 11/1
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6
Georgie's Lady 66/1
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7
Nala The Lioness Fox #2 17/2
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8
Steal A Glance Fox #3 9/2
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Do Wah Diddy 33/1
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Drakaris 20/1
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Sky Blue Ribbon 18/1
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Snow Is In The Sky 200/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
Elated 4/5 🥈 2ND
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2
Nala The Lioness 11/1 7TH
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3
Steal A Glance 5/1 8TH
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4
Jury Roses 6/1 🥉 3RD