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Mr Fox’s call

Dunkerque

SPECULATIVE Advised 5/6 Est. 58%

🥈 2ND

Mr Fox says

Dunkerque (SR 138, 5/6) holds a 9-point SR advantage over Follow Your Luck (SR 129) and is the superior-rated horse in a two-runner field. His recent form string -11121 shows consistent winning form with only a single blip, and his GoingFit:+ confirms he handles today's good ground. The market has shortened 9% since opening (Mkt:in9%), signalling that informed money is backing him, while the opposition has drifted 9% (Mkt:out9%) — a clean split that reinforces the case. Sean Quinlan's 17% strike rate at this yard-jockey combination and Jennie Candlish's professional operation add further confidence, even with the 10lb weight pull conceded. Each-way alternative: Follow Your Luck. Main danger: Follow Your Luck — In a two-runner race any horse can win on the day, and Follow Your Luck's 10lb weight pull (11-0 vs 11-10) is a meaningful physical advantage if Dunkerque's MarkMv:+4 mark and top-weight combine to blunt his finishing effort over 2m4f.