← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
John Hewitt Memorial Novices' Limited Handicap Steeple Chase (gbb Race)
Mr Fox’s call
Roadlesstravelled
SPECULATIVE Advised 5/2 Est. 35%
Mr Fox says
Roadlesstravelled (SR:122, 5/2) has steamed in 24% in the market — the most significant positive move in this field — suggesting stable confidence despite an 80-day absence. The Jonjo O'Neill partnership is well-represented with Jonjo Jr. in the saddle (19% strike rate, 81 career rides), and a form string of 111 before the two pull-ups suggests a horse of real ability when right. Crucially, the top-weight burden of 11-10 is manageable given Captain Cool (SR:131) carries 11-9 — only 1lb less — meaning the weight concession to the higher-rated rival is minimal. The step up in class (↑1) is a concern, but the market's 24% shortening overrides that hesitation. Krak has a confirmed GoingFit:- on today's good ground, effectively ruling it out, and Captain Cool's 33% drift is a red flag too large to ignore at 15/8. Each-way alternative: Captain Cool. Main danger: Captain Cool — Captain Cool (SR:131, 15/8) carries the strongest Saturday Rating in the field and has confirmed DistFit:+ and GoingFit:+ with a solid recent form line of 122131, meaning if the 33% drift is simply market noise rather than a genuine stable concern, it remains the most complete performer on paper.
Full result
Winner: Captain Cool (IRE) at SP 10/11F. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Captain Cool Fox #2 2/1
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2
Krak Fox #3 7/4
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3
Roadlesstravelled Fox #1 5/2
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Ice In The Veins 9/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
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3