British EBF "Confined" Expotile Novice Stakes (For Horses Which Have Had No More Than Three Runs) (Div I)

13:42 Leicester Tue 08 Sep 2026 7f Class 3 Good to Soft 10 runners

Mr Fox’s call

Iwasjustsaying

SPECULATIVE Advised 2/1 Est. 35%

🥈 2ND

Mr Fox says

Iwasjustsaying (SR 156, 2/1) is the highest-rated runner in the field by 3 points and is the only horse who has already won on debut — a Form:1 at the same class level (ClassMv:=) 24 days ago. Charlie Johnston posts a 13% yard strike rate across 1,352 runners and Jack Mitchell (13% from 954) is a solid booking. The 7lb weight advantage over most rivals (9-9 vs 9-2) is a genuine concern in soft ground, but the SR superiority and race-experience edge over a field dominated by unraced maidens comfortably offsets that premium. The market at 2/1 reflects deserved confidence and no drift is recorded, reinforcing that connections are happy. Each-way alternative: United Authority. Main danger: Inkjet — Inkjet (SR 151, 6/1) is unraced but has steamed in 15% from opening price under William Haggas (21% strike rate from 1,150 runners) — the strongest market move in the field — suggesting Haggas's yard holds this debut horse in high regard, and a top trainer steamer on a 7f good-to-soft debut is exactly the profile that beats odds-on newcomers.

Verify· #16645

Full result

Winner: Arabian Blue (IRE) at SP 25/1. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.

1 Arabian Blue James Horton · Daniel Muscutt 28/1
2 Iwasjustsaying Fox #1 Charlie Johnston · Jack Mitchell 9/4
3 Talamon George Boughey · Billy Loughnane 13/2
4 Meticulously Ed Walker · George Downing 16/1
5 United Authority Fox #2 Ralph Beckett · James Doyle 2/1
6 Gilded Call Brian Meehan · Joe Leavy 50/1
7 Revoked Clive Cox · Rossa Ryan 28/1
8 Inkjet Fox #3 William Haggas · Tom Marquand 5/1
9 Waqqad Andrew Balding · Rob Hornby 18/1
— Astabuen Fox #4 Ed Walker · Ashley Lewis(3) 11/2

Top 4 — how each finished

1 Iwasjustsaying 2/1 🥈 2ND
2 United Authority 7/2 5TH
3 Inkjet 6/1 8TH
4 Astabuen 9/2