← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Ardilaun Hotel Irish EBF Oyster Stakes (Listed)
Mr Fox’s call
Classiest
SPECULATIVE Advised 11/2 Est. 26%
Mr Fox says
Classiest (SR:93, 11/2, Wgt:9-1) carries the lightest weight in the field as a 3yo, benefits from a 17% market move in — the strongest steamer in the race — and is trained by Aidan O'Brien (22% strike rate, the standout trainer stat here) with Wayne Lordan booked. The SR of 93 lags Beset's 112 but the 3yo allowance and 3lb weight edge over older rivals is significant over 1m4f on good ground, and A P O'Brien rarely runs 3yos in Listed company without real intent. Beset's form (SR:112, 4/1 star rating) looks the class benchmark but she steps up two class tiers, has drifted 6% in the market, carries top-weight of 9-12 against Classiest's 9-1, and is ridden by Declan McDonogh (8% SR) — connections are not fully behind her. Teologia also merits respect as JP O'Brien's yard raider with a hot recent sequence (1-1-1-5) but has drifted 8% and faces the class jump, while Classiest is the one the market is actively buying into. Each-way alternative: Teologia. Main danger: Beset — Beset's SR of 112 is the highest in the field by 9 points, she has confirmed DistFit:+ and GoingFit:+ — the only runner with both green lights on today's conditions — and despite the class rise her raw ability edge could be decisive if the weight burden of 9-12 over 1m4f on good ground is not the leveller it appears.
Full result
Winner: Beset (GB) at SP 2/1F. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Beset Fox #2 9/4
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2
Chablis Rock 14/1
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3
Galileo Dame 14/1
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4
Kalixa 200/1
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5
Narlita 100/1
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6
Chasing Paradise Fox #4 8/1
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7
Nans View 22/1
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8
Snapretend 9/2
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9
Nuit 10/1
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10
Navy Waters 8/1
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11
Teologia Fox #3 15/2
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12
Ankara 80/1
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13
Classiest Fox #1 11/2
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14
Duvessa 100/1
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15
Ice Dancer 80/1
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16
Tamam Desert 150/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
Classiest 11/2 13TH
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2
Beset 2/1 SP 2/1F 🏆 WON
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3
Teologia 8/1 11TH
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4
Chasing Paradise 6/1 6TH