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18:00 Kempton (AW) Wed 09 Sep 2026 1m0f0y Class 5 Good to Soft 14 runners

Mr Fox’s call

Spirit Lead Me

SPECULATIVE Advised 4/1 Est. 28%

6TH

Mr Fox says

Spirit Lead Me (SR:68, 4/1) is the most compelling case in a moderate Class 5 field. The 33% market shortening is the strongest steaming signal in the race and demands respect — connections clearly believe this horse is well-placed. It carries a featherweight 8-13, the lightest in the field, giving it a 7lb advantage over top-weights and a meaningful edge over Gunfighter (SR:74, 9-2). The MarkMv:-5 indicates it runs off a mark 5lb below its last win, which is a textbook handicapper's opportunity. Course:W1P1 at Kempton confirms track affinity, and the form string 689998 shows consistency in proximity to the leaders even if wins have been elusive — the class drop to Class 5 and the mark drop together make this the moment. Richard Hughes at 13% strike rate with a confident booking of Finley Marsh (12%) rounds out a well-signalled package. Each-way alternative: Gunfighter. Main danger: Potomac River — Potomac River (SR:71, 5/1) has shortened 14% in the market, carries a light 9-4, and trainer TJ Kent operates at a solid 13% strike rate from a small yard — the money on this horse is informed and it has the SR to compete.

Verify· #16907

Full result

Winner: Gunfighter (IRE) at SP 9/2. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.