← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Unibet Supporting Safer Gambling Fillies' Novice Stakes (gbb Race)
Mr Fox’s call
Cosmic Girl
SPECULATIVE Advised 12/1 Est. 32%
Mr Fox says
Cosmic Girl (SR:143, 12/1) is the highest-rated horse with a realistic chance of winning. Her SR of 143 sits comfortably above every other runner except the drifting Noozhaa, and crucially she carries the same 9-2 as all rivals, meaning the weight is neutral. Andrew Balding (19% strike rate, 1551 runners) is a serious operator in fillies' novice company, and Oisin Murphy (21%, 1405 runners) is arguably the strongest jockey booking in the field. A form line of 36 shows she has already raced and is clearly improving — and at 12/1 the market underestimates her SR edge significantly, making her a value play against a 4/6 favourite (Enchanted Queen) whose SR of just 89 is alarmingly low for a horse this short. Each-way alternative: Noozhaa. Main danger: Noozhaa — Noozhaa holds the highest SR in the field at 152 — a full 9 points clear of Cosmic Girl — and Roger Varian (19% strike rate) is an elite trainer for debut or returning fillies; the 13% drift is the only credible concern, but if she shows any of her ability on the day she has the raw rating to win comfortably.
Full result
Winner: Enchanted Queen (GB) at SP 1/2F. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Enchanted Queen Fox #3 4/7
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2
Noozhaa Fox #2 4/1
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3
Yimmna 4/1
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4
Pointed 40/1
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5
Cosmic Girl Fox #1 12/1
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6
Tilsworth Emma 125/1
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7
Queen Of Hope 125/1
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—
Sakura Impact 125/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
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2
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3