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Pertemps Handicap Stakes (GBBPlus Race)
Mr Fox’s call
Itica
SPECULATIVE Advised 5/1 Est. 28%
Mr Fox says
Itica (SR:78, 5/1, 8-11) carries the lightest weight in the field and combines that advantage with the most compelling market signal — a 11% shortening from Oisin Murphy (22% career strike rate) and trainer Andrew Balding (18%, 2,911 runners), one of the most reliable yards at this level. The recent form shows a last-time-out win (Form:02-561, rightmost digit = 1), meaning the horse arrives in peak confidence, and ClassMv:= confirms it is not stepping up in class after that victory. The weight advantage over Devil's Peak (9-6) and Masterinthewoods (9-10) is meaningful on good-to-soft ground at 1m3f197y, and MarkMv:= means connections are not being punished by the handicapper yet. Murphy's booking for a Balding runner shortening in the market on a track that rewards a well-weighted, in-form horse is the clearest cross-signal alignment in this field. Each-way alternative: Brighton View. Main danger: Devil's Peak — Devil's Peak (SR:91, 2/1) is the highest-rated horse in the field, backed by the elite Gosden/Buick combination (24% and 25% career strike rates respectively), proven at today's distance (DistFit:+), and dropping a class — even an 8% drift is modest for a horse with these credentials, and a seven-pound weight edge for Itica may not be enough to overcome a 13-SR superiority if Devil's Peak travels kindly in the blinkers.
Full result
Winner: Devil's Peak (GB) at SP 15/8F. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Devil's Peak Fox #2 2/1
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2
Alfred Wincham 9/1
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3
My Ballyquinn 8/1
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4
Brighton View Fox #4 17/2
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5
Mr Freedom 40/1
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6
Railwayview Lady 17/2
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7
Itica Fox #1 9/2
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8
Masterinthewoods Fox #3 7/1
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9
Mocking 10/1
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Eniac -
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
Itica 5/1 7TH
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2
Devil's Peak 2/1 SP 15/8F 🏆 WON
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3
Masterinthewoods 11/2 8TH
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4
Brighton View 9/1 🏁 4TH