← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
CopyBet Overnight Best Odds Guaranteed Novices' Handicap Steeple Chase
Mr Fox’s call
Kenzo Des Bruyeres
SPECULATIVE Advised 15/8 Est. 32%
Mr Fox says
Kenzo Des Bruyeres (SR:90, 15/8) is the highest-rated horse in the field bar Jo Arengeot Bey AA, carries top-weight at 11-12 but benefits from the James Bowen booking (20% strike rate, 1,180 career rides — the most accomplished jockey in this field) and trainer Mickey Bowen operating at 16%. The form string 5-75P6 is messy but this is a small, weak Class 5 novice handicap where the SR advantage of 5 points over the nearest rivals matters. Crucially, Jo Arengeot Bey AA (SR:95, 2/1 favourite) has drifted 8% from opening, carries a MarkMv:+8 meaning it is running off a mark 8lb higher than its last win, and its GoingFit:~ on good ground is only moderate — the market is losing conviction. The 15/8 represents fair value for the field's second-highest SR runner with the strongest jockey. Each-way alternative: Broadway Honey. Main danger: Jo Arengeot Bey AA — Jo Arengeot Bey AA holds the highest SR in the field at 95 and Gavin Sheehan (23% strike rate, 1,281 rides) is the standout jockey booking — a 1-2-3 in recent completed starts shows consistent form, and if the MarkMv:+8 penalty is absorbed by the lighter weight of 11-2 relative to top-weight, it remains the most dangerous rival.
Full result
Winner: Broadway Honey (IRE) at SP 13/2. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Broadway Honey Fox #3 5/1
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2
Kenzo Des Bruyeres Fox #1 7/4
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3
Jo Arengeot Bey AA Fox #2 9/4
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4
Man Oh Man 8/1
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5
Swingforthefence 18/1
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6
Izzy's Grey 8/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
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2
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3