← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Sporting Times EBF Novice Stakes (GBB Race)
Mr Fox’s call
Ivory Moon
HIGH Advised 2/5 Est. 58%
Mr Fox says
Ivory Moon (SR 159, 2/5) is comfortably the class standout in this seven-runner novice, carrying a SR that is 14 points clear of the next best (Rapid Deployment, SR 145) and 17 clear of Perfect Strike (SR 142). The market has tightened a further 12% since opening, reinforcing confidence from shrewd connections — George Boughey (18% strike rate, 1,253 runners) booking Billy Loughnane (18%, 2,967 runners) for a juvenile who has already won on debut is a strong combination. A form figure of '1' at Class 4 novice level, just 20 days ago, indicates a horse in peak condition, and the weight of 9-7 is not burdensome given the SR advantage. Although DistFit and GoingFit are both unknown given the horse's limited career, the same applies to every rival, making this a non-differentiator. Each-way alternative: Rapid Deployment. Main danger: Rapid Deployment — Rapid Deployment (SR 145, 6/1) is the second-highest rated runner with a credible Beckett yard behind it, and while the 25% drift is mildly concerning, the SR margin over Perfect Strike and a form figure of '75' suggests a horse capable of running into a place at a competitive price.
Full result
Winner: Perfect Strike (FR) at SP 12/1. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Perfect Strike Fox #3 10/1
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2
Ivory Moon Fox #1 3/10
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3
Rapid Deployment Fox #2 11/2
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4
Valdoro 14/1
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5
Igrok 80/1
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6
Sinova 33/1
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7
Warriors Chant 100/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
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2
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3