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Fountain Workshop Celebration Fillies' Handicap Stakes
Mr Fox’s call
Espanita
SPECULATIVE Advised 9/2 SP 9/4 Est. 28%
Mr Fox says
Espanita (SR 75, 9/2, Wgt:9-5) combines the strongest multi-signal case in the field: confirmed going fitness on Good AW (GoingFit:+), place record at Lingfield (Course:W0P1), and a meaningful market move in of 11% without any obvious public reason — sharp money on a 9-day turnaround suggests connections are confident. Running off a mark only 1lb higher than last win (MarkMv:+1) means she's barely inconvenienced by the handicapper. Connor Beasley retains the ride for Charlie Johnston (13% strike rate, 2,466 career runners — a volume operation that places horses accurately), and the relatively light weight of 9-5 gives a real lbs edge over Kaori (9-11) and Lovers Leap (9-10). Her form string 896163 shows a placed effort and a win in recent outings, and today's class-level is unchanged (ClassMv:=). Each-way alternative: Lovers Leap. Main danger: Lovers Leap — Lovers Leap holds the highest SR in the field (85), runs off a mark 2lb below her last win (MarkMv:-2), and Edward Greatrex has a 14% career strike rate — the 12% market drift is the main concern but at 13/8 she may simply be an overbet favourite being opposed by savvy money rather than a genuinely flawed runner.
Full result
Winner: Espanita (IRE) at SP 9/4. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Espanita Fox #1 9/4
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2
Sunshine And Roses 11/2
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3
Lovers Leap Fox #2 5/4
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4
Kaori Fox #3 11/2
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Buckland Belle 4/1
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Lili Marleen 18/1
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Post Rider -
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
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2
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3